How good thinkers work initially
§ Uses analogy rigorously to determine the structure of the system and as part of the strategies Dörner suggests for systems thinking an example
§ Collects and PLOTs data (needed to see “covariations” that may have a “time lag”)
§ Takes action but waits for measurement before acting again
§ Takes more aspects into consideration
§ Focuses on what they want to retain
§ Follows a process - example
§ Develops goals that can adjust to changes and deals with contradictory goals
How good thinkers continue and complete their work
§ Does more testing of their own hypotheses (less assumption of "truth")
§ Has more accountability (less blame-shifting)
§ Has more tolerance of uncertainty
§ Continues to pay attention and before acting "submit" our observations to "'strategic' scrutiny"
§ Is able to deal with changes over time
The use of these quotations does not indicate Dietrich Dörner's endorsement of the content on this webpage. Previously, Dörner gave permission to use these quotations as a resource for others. I have sent an email request to use these quotations here. If he does not agree, we will, of course, remove these quotations immediately.
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Quotation from Dietrich Dörner's Logic
of Failure |
The first obvious difference is that the good participants
[in the Greenvale simulations] made more decisions than the bad ones…. |
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The participants acted “more complexly.” Their decisions
took different aspects of the entire system into account, not just one
aspect. This is clearly the more appropriate behavior in dealing with
complicated systems. |
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The good participants differed from the bad ones, however,
in how often they tested their hypotheses. The bad participants failed to do
this. For them, to propose a hypothesis was to understand reality; testing
that hypothesis was unnecessary. Instead of generating hypotheses, they
generated “truths.” Then, too, the good participants asked more why questions (as opposed to what questions). They were more
interested in the causal links behind events…. |
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When they could see no other way out, their last resort was
to say: Tom or Dick or Harry should tend to the problem. This is a normal
human dodge… But it has potentially serious consequences. If, the moment
something goes wrong, we no longer hold ourselves responsible but push the
blame onto others, we guarantee that we remain ignorant of the real reasons
for poor decisions, namely inadequate plans and failures to anticipate the
consequences. |
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What factors shaped the behavior of participants? The usual
battery of psychological tests is useless in predicting participant behavior.
We would assume that “intelligence” would determine behavior in complex
situations like this, for complicated planning¾formulating and carrying out of decisions¾presumably
places demands on what psychology has traditionally labeled “intelligence.”
But there is no significant correlation between scores on IQ tests and
performance in the Greenvale experiment or in any other complicated
problem-solving experiment. |
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It seems likely that the capacity to tolerate uncertainly has something to do with how our participants behaved. [Goes on to criticize delegators.] |
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[Draws stages of "problem-solving process,"
including "review of effects of actions and revision of strategy.”] |
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Action follows decision. Plans must be translated into
reality. This, too, is a difficult enterprise, one that calls for constant
self-observation and critique. Is what I expected to happen actually
happening? … We must be prepared to acknowledge that a solution is not
working. |
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[Required balancing act]: § [not too specific too early] –“Who knows how the game will develop?” §
[not avoid having specific goals] ¾”…if
particular actions are not informed by an overall conception, behavior will
respond only to the demands of the moment.” |
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How can we avoid this pitfall? Simply by keeping in mind, whenever we undertake the solution of a problem, the features of the current situation that we want to retain. Simple? Apparently not. As Brecht observed late in life, advocates of progress often have too low an opinion of what already
exists. When we set out to change things, in other words, we do not pay
enough attention to what we want to leave unchanged. But an analysis of what should be retained: §
gives us our only opportunity to make implicit goals explicit §
and to
prevent the solution of each problem from generating new problems like
heads of the Hydra. |
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65-67 |
Contradictory goals
are the rule, not the exception, in complex situations. In economic systems
costs and benefits are almost always at odds.[bold added] … More dangerous are the situations in
which the contradictory relation of partial goals is not evident.” [Gives example of goals of liberty and equality in “days of French revolution.”] Unrecognized contradictory relations between partial goals lead to actions that inevitably replace one problem with another. A vicious circle is commonly the result. By solving problem X, we create problem Y. And if the interval between the solutions is long enough that we an forget that the solution of the first problem created the second one…someone is sure to come up with an old solution for whatever the currently pressing problem is and will not realize that the old solution will create problem X again and send the circle into another cycle. The same thing happens when current problems are so urgent
that we will do anything to be rid of them. This, too, can produce a vicious
circle in which we flip-flop between two problematic solutions [as in
headache/stomach cures]. |
76--77 |
[Uses example of watch production and person who used analogy to process for self-manufacturing of cigarettes. Analogies are presented as a powerful way to learn. The participant as able to notice the commonalities in the “production process”: § The need for “raw materials” § The “certain sequence” and “set plan” with those raw materials to create the product § The need for “energy” and “how much is required” § The “skills do the makers of watches have to have”] By thinking of watch production as analogous to rolling cigarettes, this participant was able to develop a mental picture of watch manufacturing. This gave her a basis for asking further questions about watch production and enabled her to grasp quickly the essentials of the field she had to work in. This kind of analogous thinking is possible only if we
consider things in the abstract. We must understand that making watches is
only one narrow form of the broad concept of production process. And all
production processes have in common is using energy to put different
materials together according to a set plan. |
Thinking by analogy may seem, after the fact, a rather primitive and obvious step, but many of our participants never made use of it and therefore bog down hopelessly in concrete situations. The prerequisite for making connections between watch production and rolling cigarettes—and therefore for thinking of useful question to ask—is an abstract understanding of watch manufacturing as a production process. |
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To deal effectively with a system… [w]e need to know: § …. how the causal relationships among the variables in a system work together in that system. § … how the individual components of a system fit into a hierarchy of broad and narrow concepts. This can help us fill in by analogy those parts of a structure unfamiliar to us. §
….component parts into which the elements of a
system can be broken and the larger complexes in which those elements are
embedded. We need to know this so that we can propose hypotheses about
previously unrecognized interactions between variables.” How do we acquire knowledge about the structure of a system? One important method is analogy, as illustrated above. |
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Another method…is to observe the
changes that variables undergo over time. If we observe in an given ecosystem
that an increase in animal population A is followed by an increase in animal
population B and if we then observe a decline in population A followed by a
decline in population B, we can assume that animals of type B feed on animals
of type A and that the two populations
form a predator-prey system. The observation of covariations, between which there may be
a time lag, is one way of acquiring structural knowledge, and all it requires
is the collection and integrating of data over time. [Methods for plotting
this data so that change over time is visible is a key method.] Even after we know enough about a system to understand its
structure, we must continue to gather information. We need to know about the
system’s present status so as to
predict future developments and assess the effects of past actions. These requirements make
information essential for planning.[bold added] |
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94- 95 |
[This is from a section about a participant in the computer simulations who persisted in a solution and could not see it was not applicable to new problems.] The experience of success left an indelible mark. “The promotion of tourism,” this participant believed, “pays off.” But this abstract formulation was an overgeneralization based on only one success story. His promotion of tourism had proved successful only because
it had coincided with a favorable constellation in the environment… But our
participant did not take note of that constellation of conditions in
formulating his abstract concepts…. This “deconditionalized” concept¾this concept removed from the
context of conditions bearing on it¾led our participant into disaster. |
The effectiveness of a measure almost always depends on the
context within which the measure is pursued. A measure that produces good
effects in one situation may do damage in another, and contextual
dependencies mean that there are few general rules (rules that remain valid
regardless of conditions surrounding them) that we can use to guide our
actions. Every situation must be considered afresh. |
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A sensible and effective measure in one set of
circumstances can become a dangerous course of action when conditions change.
We must keep track of constantly changing conditions and never treat any
image we form of a situation as permanent. Everything is in flux, and we must
adapt accordingly. The need to adapt to particular circumstances, however,
runs counter to our tendency to generalize and form abstract plans of action.
We have here an example of how an important element of human intellectual
activity can be both useful and harmful. Abstract concepts are useful in
organizing and mastering complicated situations. Unfortunately, this
advantage tempts us to use generalization and abstraction too freely. Before
we apply an abstract concept to a concrete situation, we should submit it to
“strategic” scrutiny to decide whether it is appropriate to the context. |
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107- 110 |
We live and act in a four-dimensional system. In addition to
the three dimensions of space, this system includes the fourth dimension of
time, which moves in one direction, and that direction is toward the future….
We rarely have trouble dealing with configurations in space. If we’re not
entirely sure of what we’re looking at, we can take another look and resolve
our uncertainty. We can normally look at forms in space again and again and
in this way precisely determine their particular configuration. That is not
true of configurations in time. A time configuration is available for
examination only in retrospect. … Because we are constantly presented with whole spatial
configurations, we readily think in such terms.… Our experience with spatial
forms also gives us great intuition about the “missing pieces”…. By contrast, we often overlook time configurations and treat successive steps in a temporal development as individual events…. In contrast to the rich set of spatial concepts we can use to understand patters in space, we seem to rely on only a few mechanism of prognostication to gain insight into the future. The primary such mechanism is extrapolation from the moment. In other words, those aspects of the present that anger, worry, or delight us the most will play a key role in our predictions of the future…. Two factors come together in extrapolations from the
moment: [bullets added] §
first,
the limited focus on a notable feature of the present §
and, second,
extension of the perceived trend in a more or less linear and “monotone”
fashion (that is, without allowing for any change in direction). Our ultimate concern in this chapter is how people form
their ideas of the future. If we can identify the typical difficulties people
have in dealing with time and in recognizing temporal patterns, we can
suggest ways to overcome these difficulties and to improve temporal
intuition. |
[Dörner focuses on the success of a “good participant” who tries a setting and waits to see what happens before changing the setting again.] Participant 27a always waits a fairly long time before adjusting the regulator, and as a consequence, slowly develops a feel for the proper setting. He gradually lowers the settings and finally succeeds in bring the storeroom down to the desired temperature. |
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156-165 |
[Thinking systemically is possible. Dörner covers a variety of strategies, including “reverse planning,” a method he attributes as a “standard method” for “mathematicians and logicians.” “Reverse planning” requires figuring out where you want to be and backing up from there—two complex actions, but hopeful. He suggests how to use such approaches as: § “[N]arrowing the problem sector” so you can remedy a smaller problem, with Dörner covering methods from pages 157 to 159, including “culling unsuccessful strategies,” something “particularly effective in helping us overcome deeply entrenched patterns of though.” §
Using analogy, including with “time lags” §
Setting up “’a redundancy of potential
command,’ that is, many individuals who are all capable of carrying out
leadership tasks within the context of general directives” |
193- |
Geniuses are geniuses by birth, whereas the wise gain their wisdom thorough experience. And it seems to me that the ability to deal with problems in the most appropriate way is the hallmark of wisdom rather than genius. If that is so, then it must be possible both to teach and to learn how to think in complex situations. Some of the results presented in this book show that people can respond to circumstances and learn to deal with specific areas of reality…. Rather simple methods can, however, improve our ability to think. [Dörner describes several strategies for education and his “plea” for changes. The final quotation reveals his fundamental hopefulness.] |
What matters is not, I think, development of the neglected
right half of the brain, not the liberation of some mysterious creative
potential, and not the mobilization of that fallow 90 percent of our mental capacity.
There is only one thing that does in fact matter, and that is the development
of our common sense. |
For who Dörner is and
the basics about systems and systems thinking, click here. For all of the quotations from The Logic of Failure and these topics,
click here:
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with this link, please email using the email address below.
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2012 06/04 |
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