Change Over Time - “a process that develops exponentially will, once it has begun, race to its conclusion with incredible speed”

Education policy means that student after student, cohort after cohort, will have experiences that last a lifetime. This visual expands the time period covered in the visual for the first years to see the implications as time goes on.

 

Notice how this change that started in 2000 plays out over the following years, especially with the key years for the basics of evidence in the 6th, 7th, and 8th grades. (You can see real examples of what these students TODAY think is evidence. When you click on the link, the collection of examples is at the bottom half of that webpage. The top half of that webpage provides links to some of the national observations of the characteristics of our students today.)

 

The chart can help you see:

1.       These groups as they age and become Workers – Voters with these colors highlighting the cohorts before the changed policies and after

 

2.       Notice the comparative quantities of these groups. Look at the numbers of orange rows—and the gray

 

3.       Look at how long the consequences last. The chart ends with 2030, but the last column gives you an estimated year when these students leave the work force at age 68.

Student

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

STOPPED

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Turns

68

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

[2]

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2050

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

2051

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2052

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

2053

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2054

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2055

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2056

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

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Worker-Voter

2057

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2058

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2059

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2060

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2061

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2062

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2063

-

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2064

-

-

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2065

-

-

-

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2066

-

-

-

-

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2067

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2068

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2069

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2070

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2071

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2072

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st

grade

2nd

grade

3rd

grade

4th

grade

5th

grade

6th

grade

7th

grade

8th

grade

9th

grade

10th

grade

11th

grade

12th

grade

Starts college

 

 

 

 

Starts career

Worker-Voter

Worker-Voter

2073

 

 

This is a repeat of the content on the 2nd page of the visual through 2018.

What was the policy “mandating minimum grades”?

“The majority of Texas districts have policies mandating minimum grades — typically a 50 — for any grading period, according to the lawsuit. The districts contend that awarding an even lower grade could make it impossible for students to pass the course.… The Klein school district has banned report card grades lower than 50 for nine years, according to district spokeswoman Trazanna Moreno.”


From "Houston-area districts sue over grading policy They say state education chief has wrong idea about ‘honest grades’ law By ERICKA MELLON HOUSTON CHRONICLE Nov. 19, 2009, 9:27PM. The policy ended about 2010.

What motivated the initial sketch?

Learning by accident about the districts’ policy explained what had looked unexplainable: a sudden increase in 2008 of a problem—an increase that seems to become the new norm:

§         Students passively copied words, either outright plagiarism or what The Bedford Handbook describes as “half-copy” plagiarism.

§         These students also had another trait in common: they misread and had numerous factual errors.

§         Finally, these students were certain—even indignant in their certainty—that they were right about what the world wanted.

 

Turning a piece of notebook paper on its side and logging in pencil what is now typed in the table revealed the pattern. The students who were graduating from high school when the new policies started did not seem different in skills from those from the prior years. The students in 2008 who seemed to become the new norm did have something in common: They were the first to have experienced the 6th, 7th, and 8th grades under the new system. For many of us as students, these were the years when teachers made sure we had mastered the basics of what is plagiarism, what is a reliable source, and what is evidence.

 

These students seem to have missed “telling” feedback. Dörner’s work explains the need for such feedback and the rise of “magical” hypotheses when people do not receive it. For examples of our students’ “magical” hypotheses, including about evidence, click here. When you click on the link, the collection of examples is at the bottom half of that webpage. The top half of that webpage provides links to some of the national observations of the characteristics of our students today.)

 

How fast can systems change?

The report Are U.S. Students Ready to Compete? at http://educationnext.org/are-u-s-students-ready-to-compete/ comments on this time frame for change:

“a 20-year delay before any school reform is completed and the newly proficient students begin their working careers.”

 

 

Copyright 2010-2012 C. J. Bibus, Ed.D.

 

WCJC Department:

History – Dr. Bibus

Contact Information:

281.239.1577 or bibusc@wcjc.edu

Last Updated:

2012 – 06/04

WCJC Home:

http://www.wcjc.edu/

 

 

 



[1] “Driving a No. 2 pencil into the heart of the testing monster” By PATRICIA KILDAY HART, HOUSTON CHRONICLE, May 2, 2012

[2] In practical terms, the gap between starting college and starting a career may be any number of years (not just four) and, with a changing economy, students may return to higher education repeatedly to retrain for other careers.